How news orgs manage their home pages

Professional news orgs have a lot of insight about what’s important and what’s not. Sometimes it goes unnoticed with all the noise in today’s crowded media market, but the signals are there in the data for us to see if we look in the right places.

Smaller publishers including fake news sources have learned how to make web sites that look as good as larger professional web sites. As a result much of the work that goes into producing important journalism and providing it to people goes unnoticed.

So, how do we know the difference? How does anyone know that a large group of hardworking and intelligent media professionals have carefully crafted an important story and that they think it matters to the public?

One signal is the way stories get prioritized.

Source: Kaleida Data, 2017

Kaleida CTO Graham Tackley looked into the data and found consistently that about 2% of all the articles from the publishers we track make it to the lead position on their home pages. If 98% of their output doesn’t get the top featured slot then these featured pieces obviously matter a lot.

We didn’t see consistent behaviour around how long featured stories remain there. The majority of Fox News’ featured stories hold that position for a few hours. The New York Times varies from story to story, but none last in the featured slot for more than 24 hours.

The publishing strategy for what else goes on the home page varies even more. Stories can last somewhere on the home page for minutes or days. The mean average for a story on the home page is 12 hours, about 5% last on the home page for up to 2 days.

The Daily Mail, for example, has two parallel publishing strategies. The main news column is rotated every 24 hours, while the long right-hand column moves at a much slower pace. Nothing on the Buzzfeed home page lasts more than 24 hours, most cycling through in about 4 to 6 hours.

There are many other channels such as Facebook where publishers prioritise their stories. Sometimes stories are published there without offering an equivalent piece on their own web site. We also know from looking at each publisher’s Google sitemap file that there are many stories that never make it to the home page or any of the social channels.

While we don’t yet know the impact of these various strategies on each publisher’s business we can use this data to build a clearer picture of what matters from their perspective.

The data gets particularly interesting when you look at it in aggregate.

If all the people in the news business from both left and right-leaning politics think something matters then that’s worth knowing. That’s a very loud signal. The decision not to feature a story can be equally loud.

Of course, identifying what matters is a two-way street. Just because an editor thinks something matters doesn’t mean readers always feel the same way. But it’s our belief that professional news orgs provide more value than most of us realise. It’s harder to see it with all the noise out there now, but the amount of work that goes into the editorial decisions made every day can be useful in setting some standards of value across the media ecosystem.

Maybe the business model problem for media has more to do with the process of media production than its distribution. Maybe the two-way street is precisely where the value lies.

More on that soon.

How much is a Facebook partnership worth?

At Kaleida we found correlations that prove sharing patterns on Facebook are a good proxy for referral traffic. That means publishers can work out the real value of all the effort they put into doing things with (and for) the company.

News orgs have struggled with platforms for a long time. They don’t know how to find a fair working relationship because it’s hard to quantify the benefits for each side. What is the unit of value to ground the negotiation?

Facebook, Google, Twitter and all the rest are always selling the idea that they drive a lot of traffic to publishers’ web sites and, therefore, publishers can’t afford not to work with them. If that’s the starting point then there’s a very important question to ask:

How much is that traffic worth? And how do you know?

This has been a particularly slippery question when it comes to Facebook, but it doesn’t have to be.

Kaleida CTO Graham Tackley decided it was time to find some answers. What he found confirmed his suspicions that organic shares on Facebook are a reasonable proxy for real web site traffic.

The sample data here is pretty small, but it’s enough to get started. It includes one day of data from a publisher we work with who will remain anonymous. We have total page views and referral data for hundreds of articles published in early April, 2017 by “Publisher X”.


In this chart you can see a band of dots suggesting a correlation between organic sharing and Facebook referral traffic. The Pearson correlation coefficient is 0.86.

To put that in context, a perfect correlation is 1.0, meaning every point is an exact 1-to-1 relationship between the x and the y axis. A correlation of 0.0 means there is no relationship, that the figures are all totally random. So, a correlation of 0.86 is actually pretty strong, good enough to confirm the idea that Facebook sharing patterns are a reasonable proxy for Facebook referral traffic patterns on a web site.

The correlation between organic sharing and total web site traffic is much lower at 0.65. Facebook is not the sole source of traffic, of course. But neither is Google which scores 0.89. Google scores higher overall because Google provides a more even spread of traffic to publishers’ web sites, driving people to home pages and the like in addition to articles.

Interestingly, while Google traffic may be more reliable and evenly spread Facebook pushed more referrals to article pages for Publisher X than Google did.


So, if there’s a strong correlation between sharing and traffic then we can work out how much value Facebook adds to the bottom line. Crucially, we can trust that the number will convert into real income unlike some of the things Facebook wants publishers to do.

What is a ‘share’ on Facebook worth?

This data can help us paint that picture. First, let’s improve the precision of the answer by focusing on the higher value data.

We know, for example, that most articles get very few shares, less than 100. Let’s throw those out of this sample, because those shares aren’t really helping either the publisher or Facebook. Equally, the 90th percentile have gone viral or they got a huge boost in some unpredictable way. Facebook can’t guarantee those will happen. According to Kurt Gessler of Chicago Tribune, the algorithm may not surface a third of all brand page posts anyhow. So, let’s throw those out, too.

That leaves us with articles that have earned between 80 and 10,000 organic shares. Publisher X here had 1.1M Facebook referrals for that sample from over 240K shares.

So, in this case, one share on Facebook counts for about 4.5 page views.

If we use a generous average eCPM of $10 to make the math easier then it’s reasonable to say Facebook referrals have driven about $10k worth of advertising revenue opportunity that day for Publisher X.

Revenue divided by transactions = unit value. So, how much is a share on Facebook worth?

An organic share on Facebook is worth about $0.04 to the publisher.

If that was a typical day for this publisher and all the other assumptions are in the right ballpark then Facebook referrals probably drive between 3% and 5% of total digital revenues for Publisher X.

It’s true that being present on a platform has value to it far beyond referral traffic. It’s also true that publishers could be wiser about their publishing strategies which would improve that figure.

But to accept the sales pitch from the platforms without also knowing where the tangible value lies and how much is on the table is a mistake nobody should make. Strategic value is really important, but given the internal cost of many publishers’ Facebook initiatives, including Publisher X, it’s likely that much of the strategic value in partnering is being lost. And as digital ad revenue market share moves away from news orgs this trade off feels less and less compelling.

Now that we know sharing and referral traffic have a significant and reliable relationship those discussions should feel different. Negotiating that partnership should start with a number: $0.04.


Facebook share value will vary per publisher based on total referrals, shares and CPM. We could use more data from more publishers to refine these figures, so if you want us to do this analysis for you, please get in touch: matt@kaleida.com and tackers@kaleida.com.

Macron’s attention spike just prior to winning the election

On Thursday the attention levels for Macron and Le Pen were neck and neck. But then attention swung dramatically in favour of Macron, mostly because everyone was talking about the email hack. The next day he won the election.

Source: Kaleida Data, 2017

In this chart we’ve multiplied the number of articles about Macron and Le Pen published by major media sources in the US and the UK by the number of organic shares the articles earned on Facebook.

The major peak in the chart happened around the final debate. Attention for both fell before Macron got the big boost that put him in the lead at the end.

The remarkable insight here is that yet again we find the combination of media coverage and the response to that coverage reflecting real world outcomes. Correlations are not the same as causation, but we are finding more and more reasons to pay close attention to this relationship.

Macron’s lead is narrower than the polls suggest

If attention matters in the French election as much as it did for Trump, Brexit and Round One then the polls need to consider how people are responding to coverage of the candidates.

Source: Kaleida Data, 2017

Source: FT Research, 2017

The polls currently show Emmanuel Macron leading Marine Le Pen in the French Presidential Election. The FT has a nice poll tracker mapping a steady position of voting intentions for the more centrist candidate.

Le Pen has closed in noticeably but not threateningly.

The polls were were strikingly accurate in Round One, so there’s no reason to believe that they will be wrong now. However, recent history in other parts of the world suggest people’s voting intentions can’t always be trusted on the big day.

While projecting American and British experiences onto the French electorate is bound to be inaccurate, the data tells a story that should concern anyone who expects Macron to take 60% of the vote. The polls aren’t considering the impact of the media, the attention Le Pen is capturing and the momentum moving in her direction these last few days.