Lessons for Old Media from Jared Diamond and the evolution of civilizations

Last night the local PBS affiliate KQED ran the first segment in a really cool series called 'Guns, Germs and Steel' based on the research of Jared Diamond published in 1997.  He tries to reduce the evolution of civilizations to a few key resources and the way people adapted because of the presence of those environmental factors.  (I haven't read the book or seen the 2nd and 3rd episodes yet.)

He challenges the concept of free will on one level, as he maps common outcomes around the globe at similar times in history where cultures were not likely to cross pollinate.  He says that the introduction of farming followed by food storage followed by animal domestication created the foundation upon which sustenance could support a standalone community.  The system was robust enough to allow a segment of the society to explore beyond the day-to-day grind and invent new tools, weapons and art forms.

Of course, the local environment repeatedly fails to support this system across time, yet the inventions of man continue to open up new ways to counterbalance nature's inherent instability.  

You can see similar forces occurring within society and even within human nature itself.  We even replicate this pattern in our creations including the Internet and the businesses that try to survive there.

Take the recent discourse on Old Media vs New Media.  Old Media relies on known beasts of burden (the editor, expensive distribution, advertising revenue, etc.), but it has spread too thin the resource that keeps Old Media alive - attention.  And while Old Media was making enough money to support the crazy web site project on the side, they often failed to leave the dry desert for more fertile ground found by the New Media explorers.

Diamond goes on to explain how the farming system forced people to spread from the Middle East to Asia, Europe and North Africa in search of more sustainable land.  Cultures like New Guinea which were unable to capitalize on key new developments remained small and unchanged if they survived at all.

It would be a mistake to proclaim the end of tv, radio or print.  Media as we understand it today is a sustainable concept with some very important social implications.  The system works and it matters.  But it is equally wrong to hold on to the old models with the knowledge that the resources are evolving, drying up in some cases, and that new tools, weapons and art are now available to grow and expand media into more fruitful territory.

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